Technical indicators signal continued bearish pressure
Pepe Coin’s price action has been concerning lately, to put it mildly. The token has dropped about 76% from its November peak, and honestly, the charts don’t look great. It’s currently trading around $0.0000067, which is quite a fall from the $0.00001667 high back in May.
What worries me is that PEPE has broken below that key $0.0000091 support level—that was the lower boundary of what looked like a descending triangle pattern. The token is also sitting below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which isn’t ideal. That death cross pattern that formed back in August seems to be playing out exactly as technical analysts would have predicted.
But here’s the thing that really caught my attention—there’s this head-and-shoulders pattern that’s been developing since March of last year. The head peaked at $0.00002840 with shoulders around $0.00001692, and the neckline sits at $0.0000057. If this pattern holds true, we could see PEPE testing that $0.000005754 level soon, and maybe even dropping to this month’s low around $0.000002793.
Whale activity shows declining confidence
Looking beyond the charts, the on-chain data tells a similar story. Whales have been reducing their positions significantly—they’ve cut their holdings by 20% over the past month, down to 4.89 trillion tokens from over 6.13 trillion in September. That’s not a small move, and it suggests the big players are getting nervous.
Public figure investors are doing the same thing, trimming their positions from 100.8 billion tokens in September to about 91.94 billion now. Smart money investors have been even more aggressive, reducing their PEPE exposure by 38% in the last 30 days. When the people who typically make smart moves start exiting, it’s worth paying attention.
Market metrics reflect fading interest
The derivatives market isn’t providing much comfort either. The weighted funding rate has been negative recently, which typically indicates bearish sentiment among traders. More concerning is the futures open interest—it’s dropped to $250 million from a July high of $1.02 billion. That’s the lowest level since April 10, which suggests traders are losing interest in taking positions on PEPE.
Daily trading volume tells a similar story. We’ve gone from year-to-date highs around $5 billion down to less than $600 million today. That kind of volume decline usually means the speculative frenzy has cooled off significantly.
I think the combination of these factors—the bearish technical patterns, whale selling, and declining market interest—creates a pretty challenging environment for PEPE in the near term. The token would need to break back above that $0.00000911 resistance level to change the current narrative, but given the current momentum, that seems unlikely in the immediate future.
