Trades before poll release
A report in the New York Times says suspicious prediction market bets were placed shortly before two recent NYT/Siena political polls became public. Vanderbilt University researchers flagged one Polymarket user who bet almost $200,000 on Oct. 31 that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would be re-elected. About an hour later, a Times/Siena poll came out showing Ricketts in the lead. The user won more than $77,000, the report said. It is not clear whether the trader had inside information, but the timing caught researchers’ attention.
More markets and a pattern
The same user also placed similar large bets on other prediction markets, including Kalshi, according to the report. Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security said the circumstances are hard to write off as a random occurrence and require further investigation. Polymarket said it spotted the trades and is investigating. Kalshi declined to comment. The report does not establish wrongdoing, and prediction markets often see large positions. Still, the sequence is the kind of thing regulators and market operators watch, perhaps especially around political events.
Earlier insider trading case
The report follows an April Cointelegraph story about a US Army soldier charged with making more than $400,000 by betting on a prediction market while allegedly using nonpublic information tied to a US operation involving then Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The Department of Justice alleged that Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke helped plan and execute Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to Maduro’s capture at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January. Van Dyke allegedly used that information to buy yes shares in related Polymarket contracts, including one asking whether Maduro would be out by January 31 and another on Trump invoking War Powers against Venezuela by January 31, according to the DOJ.
Questions remain
For now, the Ricketts trades are under review, not proven to be insider trading. Prediction market platforms face growing pressure to show they can police large, well-timed bets. The New York Times report adds to that scrutiny, with researchers saying the pattern deserves a closer look. Polymarket has not disclosed details of its review, and Kalshi is not commenting. The outcome may depend on whether investigators find a link between the trader and private polling data.
