After a year and a half of prolonged decline, the Shiba Inu (SHIB) token is showing signs of a local recovery. Following Dogecoin’s lead, the current technical setup points to a mean reversion scenario that may become decisive for holders who have been holding the token since late 2024.
December 2024 marked the last significant peak for SHIB at $0.00003366, after which the meme coin entered a deep downturn, losing 84% of its value. However, spring 2026 has brought some local optimism. Since March, the price has already shown a 20% increase, rising to $0.00000628.
The Critical Level Everyone Is Watching
Attention is now focused on the 200-day moving average, which currently stands at $0.0000075, according to the TradingView chart. A further 18% move toward this level appears mathematically justified, but it carries a hidden challenge for traders. Many market participants are watching this line closely.
The 200-day average is often seen as a dividing line between long-term trends. For SHIB, touching this level would mean an 18% gain from current prices. But not everyone is celebrating this potential move. Some analysts warn that this rally could be short-lived.
Why the 200-Day Average Is a Crowded Exit for Underwater Holders
Market mechanics often pull assets back to their average values after extreme deviations. The $0.0000075 level for Shiba Inu is not just a technical line, but a zone where many holders are looking to exit positions with minimal losses. This creates a natural resistance.
This growth should not be confused with the start of a new global rally. For many holders, the current scenario represents a strategic opportunity to reduce losses. The market backdrop remains restrained, with a large mass of underwater positions from 2025 creating strong overhead pressure. I suspect that a lot of people who bought near the top are just waiting for a chance to get out.
What Happens Next Depends on Whales
If the 18% upside scenario plays out, the key question will be the behavior of large holders near this critical level. Whether SHIB can turn this resistance into support or if this is only a temporary pause before another phase of consolidation within a broader downtrend will be determined in the coming weeks of May. The next few weeks could be decisive for the token’s short-term direction.
