The hidden quantum competition
Charles Edwards, who founded Capriole Investments, has been talking about something that makes me pause. He suggests there’s this quiet race happening between the U.S. and China. They’re both pushing hard to reach quantum superiority, but it’s not out in the open. It’s more like a shadow competition.
What’s interesting, or perhaps concerning, is his view that China might be hiding how far along they really are. They could be more advanced than we realize. That thought alone changes how we should look at the whole situation.
The 2030 deadline
The U.S. Congress has been told they need to set a “Quantum First” goal. The target is 2030. That’s not that far away when you think about it. Edwards mentions there’s a “wall of money” flowing into quantum research now. Both governments see this as critical.
I was reading through the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission report. They put it pretty bluntly: whoever leads in quantum technology will control digital encryption. They’ll have breakthroughs in materials, energy, medicine. They’ll gain what they call an “asymmetric advantage” in intelligence and targeting.
The report says quantum shouldn’t be treated as just another research area. It needs to be seen as mission-critical for national security. That’s strong language.
The Bitcoin problem
Here’s where it gets personal for crypto people. Edwards has been warning about quantum computing and Bitcoin. He thinks a quantum computer could break Bitcoin’s encryption in just 2 to 9 years. That’s not decades away. That’s potentially within this decade.
Other predictions I’ve seen point to 2035 as a possible timeline. But those predictions usually use U.S. progress as the benchmark. They don’t account for China’s efforts, which might be further along than we know.
The community needs to upgrade to quantum-resistant systems, Edwards says. Sooner rather than later. But upgrading something as fundamental as Bitcoin’s encryption isn’t simple. It requires consensus, testing, careful implementation.
What we don’t know
What strikes me is how much we don’t know. If China is indeed concealing their quantum capabilities, we’re operating with incomplete information. That makes planning difficult.
The geopolitical implications are significant. This isn’t just about faster computers. It’s about who controls the foundational security of our digital world. Encryption protects everything from financial transactions to private communications.
I think we’re at a point where the theoretical threat of quantum computing is becoming more concrete. The timelines are getting shorter. The stakes are becoming clearer. And the competition between major powers adds another layer of urgency to the whole situation.
