Prediction markets show declining pardon chances
Prediction market traders actually reduced the odds of a presidential pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried after his parents went on CNN. I think that’s interesting because you’d expect a public defense might help, but it seems to have had the opposite effect.
Polymarket now shows just an 11% chance of a pardon happening this year, while Kalshi sits at 9%. Both numbers are lower than they were before Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried appeared on Michael Smerconish’s show on March 21. The drop wasn’t huge—just 2 percentage points on Polymarket and 1 point on Kalshi—but it’s still a move in the wrong direction for the family.
Maybe traders saw the interview as bringing unwanted attention back to the case. When something gets discussed publicly again, people start thinking about all the reasons why a pardon might not happen.
Parents’ defense faces skepticism
In the interview, Bankman and Fried maintained their son’s innocence. Joseph Bankman said, “There’s an appeal on the case, but we don’t think it’s fraud.” They both acknowledged that Alameda Research borrowed customer funds from FTX, but argued those funds weren’t misused.
“The money was always there,” Bankman claimed, saying Alameda had enough backing to cover its positions. Fried echoed this, stating, “All the money, it was there, every penny of it.”
But here’s the thing—this defense might not be convincing to people who remember the bankruptcy proceedings. The FTX estate itself sued Bankman and Fried in 2023, trying to recover funds and property it said were improperly transferred. That case mentioned discussions about a $10 million cash gift and a $16.4 million luxury property in the Bahamas.
Political landscape looks unfavorable
The family has tried to frame this as a political issue. Fried argued that “Sam’s prosecution was essentially political” and claimed parts of the Biden administration targeted the crypto industry.
Yet public support for a pardon seems pretty limited. Senator Cynthia Lummis told Politico, “I hope the president doesn’t fall for that. He hurt a lot of people.” That’s a Republican senator, which suggests this isn’t a partisan issue where one side might rally behind him.
And then there’s Trump. Reports indicate he wouldn’t pardon Bankman-Fried either. So you’ve got both potential presidents apparently not interested, which makes the prediction market numbers look about right.
Appeal faces uphill battle
In February 2026, Fried filed an appeal on her son’s behalf. The filing argues that new testimony would challenge three key government claims about FTX’s solvency and customer repayment prospects.
But appeals are tough to win, especially in high-profile cases like this. The original case was pretty comprehensive, and overturning it would require showing significant errors in the trial process.
Looking at all this together, the single-digit odds on prediction markets seem realistic. The parents’ public defense might have been intended to build sympathy, but it appears to have reminded people why a pardon is unlikely. The case remains complex, the losses were substantial, and political support just isn’t there.
Perhaps the family will continue their efforts, but for now, traders are betting against a pardon happening this year. The numbers suggest they see it as a long shot at best.
