Bitcoin pushes back toward $85,000
Bitcoin extended its weekend recovery and briefly climbed above $84,000 after falling toward $80,000 during last week’s selloff. Ethereum also moved back above $2,500, reversing part of its recent losses as buying activity returned to the market.
The rebound now faces a test. CryptoQuant analyst J.A. Maartunn said on Oct. 11 that a liquidity cluster formed just above Bitcoin’s trading level, giving traders a chance to push prices higher. The spot Bid/Ask Ratio, which tracks buying and selling liquidity within 1% of the current price, rose to 0.3. That suggested visible buying interest had strengthened relative to sell orders. Still, such liquidity can disappear if traders cancel orders.
The $84,000 to $85,000 cost basis wall
Checkonchain data highlighted by analyst Darkfost on Oct. 11 showed that about 53% of Bitcoin’s invested capital had an estimated acquisition price above $83,000 when the cryptocurrency traded around that level. The measure weights acquisition prices by invested capital, so larger positions carry more weight.
The largest concentration of acquisition costs sits between $84,000 and $85,000. That makes the region a potential obstacle. Investors who bought Bitcoin around those levels may become more willing to sell as prices approach their estimated cost basis. Buyers would then need to absorb extra supply. A sustained move through the area would suggest demand is strong enough to overcome that pressure. If it fails, Bitcoin could be vulnerable to another decline. Darkfost identified the $77,000 to $79,000 range as a possible support area.
Ethereum faces derivatives caution
Ethereum’s recovery has a separate problem. Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson noted on Oct. 10 that Ethereum’s 30-day and 180-day open-interest deltas were both negative, along with weakening readings in its Whale vs. Retail Delta indicator. He interpreted the combination as evidence that major traders have reduced bullish exposure and increasingly favor defensive or short positions.
The negative open-interest readings mean outstanding derivatives positions have contracted over those periods. Even so, Ethereum’s total futures open interest remained substantial at about 10.58 million ETH. At $2,500 per ETH, that is roughly $26.5 billion in notional exposure.
Weakening bullish positioning plus large remaining exposure increases the potential for sharp price moves if volatility returns. A renewed decline could push long positions that use borrowing toward forced liquidation, adding selling pressure and accelerating losses. A sustained recovery could force short sellers to close positions, contributing to further upward momentum. Wedson warned that Ethereum’s derivatives market remains vulnerable to further liquidations despite the recent reduction in outstanding positions.
