New ETF filings target election outcomes
Bitwise and GraniteShares have both submitted filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission this week. They’re looking to launch exchange-traded funds that track political prediction markets. Specifically, these would be tied to U.S. election outcomes.
Bitwise’s filing came on Tuesday under the brand name PredictionShares. They’re proposing six different ETFs that would trade on NYSE Arca. The structure is pretty straightforward—two funds for the 2028 presidential election, two for the 2026 Senate races, and two for House control.
How these prediction ETFs would work
Each fund would invest at least 80% of its assets in binary event contracts. These are derivatives traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges. If the referenced outcome happens, the contract settles at $1. If it doesn’t, it settles at $0.
So for example, one Bitwise fund would aim to provide capital appreciation if a Democrat wins the 2028 presidential election. The prospectus makes it clear: if a Democrat doesn’t win, the fund “will lose substantially all of its value.”
The share price would essentially reflect the market’s implied probability of that outcome happening. It would fluctuate between $0 and $1 based on polling data, news developments, and general sentiment.
GraniteShares follows with similar proposal
GraniteShares filed a similar prospectus on the same day. They’re also proposing six funds with identical structures based on U.S. election outcomes. It seems like there’s a growing interest in this space.
James Seyffart, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, commented that “the financialization and ETF-ization of everything continues.” He has a point—we’re seeing more and more niche products enter the ETF market.
Not the first attempt at prediction market ETFs
This isn’t actually the first time someone has tried this. Roundhill filed for similar funds back on February 14th. Their prospectus also offered six prediction market-style ETFs based on presidential, Senate, and House election outcomes.
Seyffart noted that this likely won’t be the last filing of this kind either. I think he’s probably right. As investors look for new ways to express views on political outcomes, these products offer a regulated alternative to traditional prediction markets.
What’s interesting to me is how these funds would actually trade. The binary nature means they’re essentially all-or-nothing bets wrapped in an ETF structure. That’s quite different from most ETFs that track baskets of stocks or bonds.
I wonder how much demand there really is for this type of product. Political prediction markets have existed for years, but packaging them as ETFs makes them accessible to a different set of investors. Maybe that’s the appeal—bringing something that feels like betting into the mainstream financial world.
The SEC will need to review these filings, of course. There might be regulatory questions about whether these truly qualify as investment products. But if they get approved, we could see a whole new category of ETFs emerge.
It’s worth watching how this develops. Prediction markets have been around for a while, but putting them in ETF form is relatively new. Whether investors actually want to use their brokerage accounts to bet on election outcomes remains to be seen.
