CLARITY Act Misses April Deadline, Pushback to May
The US Senate Banking Committee has let April close without scheduling a markup for the CLARITY Act, pushing the bill’s legislative path entirely into May. According to Eleanor Terrett, the committee took no action before Friday’s informal cutoff, with no formal announcement from Chairman Tim Scott or Banking Committee Republicans. This effectively removes April from the calendar and shifts focus to the second week of May.
Warsh Hearings Delay Progress
April’s committee agenda was heavily focused on the confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh. Senator Thom Tillis had earlier blocked Warsh, creating competing pressure on the same lawmakers negotiating the CLARITY Act’s text. As crypto.news reported, Tillis announced on April 27 that the Warsh confirmation process had been resolved, easing the committee’s most pressing competing obligation. A Banking Committee markup is now expected in the first or second week of May, according to multiple industry and Senate sources. However, analysts warn that even an early May markup may not leave enough time to clear all steps before the May 21 Memorial Day recess.
Five Steps Remain Before Passage
The bill’s path from a successful committee markup to a presidential signature requires five steps: a committee vote, a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, reconciliation between Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, reconciliation with the House text from July 2025, and a presidential signature. Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn warned that if the markup slips past mid-May, the probability of passage in 2026 will drop sharply. TD Cowen is more pessimistic, putting odds at one-in-three, citing CFTC staffing gaps, prediction market politics, and Iran-related crypto payment concerns. Polymarket prices passage at about 46%, far below the 82% peak earlier this year. Despite these hurdles, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz remains optimistic, saying on a podcast that “this is going to get done” and it “probably gets done in May.”
Prior Missed Deadlines Raise Concerns
Missing April’s target matters beyond the calendar. As crypto.news tracked, every prior deadline has followed a pattern: near-final optimism followed by a new delay, whether from bank lobbying, stablecoin yield disputes, or calendar competition from the Fed chair process. The bill has missed every formal or informal deadline since 2025. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reversed his January opposition and now supports the text. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse shifted his forecast from April to May. The White House, Treasury, and both primary regulatory agencies back the bill. The substance is settled. The only remaining question is whether the Senate Banking Committee can move the bill before midterm campaign politics dominate the floor.
A Senate aide familiar with negotiations told Terrett that an early May markup remains the target, but the final bill text has not been released for the required 48-hour public review period needed before any committee vote.
