Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimated probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60%. The firm’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, cited a shrinking Senate calendar and lack of visible legislative progress as the main reasons. According to a research note, time has become the biggest obstacle, not the bill’s contents.
Thorn said the lack of public developments is a signal in itself. Negotiations have not produced milestones normally expected before a floor vote. The Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees have been working on a combined version, but the merged text has not been released, and no debate schedule has been announced. Staff-level talks remain constructive, but that should not be mistaken for momentum without a public voting timetable.
Senate calendar becomes the biggest hurdle
The Senate is adjourned until July 13, leaving a narrow window before the August recess. Majority Leader John Thune secured unanimous consent for the break, meaning no senator objected. Representative Anna Paulina Luna criticized the decision, saying she would not vote to reopen the House floor until senators return.
Competition for floor time has intensified. President Donald Trump tied his support for a bipartisan housing bill to passage of the SAVE Act. Lawmakers also must address FISA legislation and the National Defense Authorization Act, leaving limited room for crypto market structure bills. Thorn called scheduling the primary concern, adding that the remaining runway before recess is only a matter of weeks.
Policy debates continue alongside procedural delays
Several policy issues remain unresolved. Ethics provisions still divide lawmakers after a conflict-of-interest amendment was removed during committee consideration. Law enforcement organizations are seeking revisions to developer protections in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
Earlier this week, the Justice Department rejected concerns from four national law enforcement groups. The organizations argued that Section 604 and related exemptions could create regulatory gaps, but the DOJ said the legislation would not weaken investigations into terrorism financing, drug trafficking, or human smuggling.
Senator Cynthia Lummis said the Senate expects to release the final CLARITY Act text around July 4 for public review before seeking floor consideration later in July. If the Senate amends the House-approved version, both chambers must reconcile the bills before sending it to the president.
Galaxy said several developments could improve the bill’s prospects: publication of a unified Senate text, resolution of policy disputes, and a leadership commitment to schedule a July floor vote. Thorn added that such an announcement within two weeks could lift odds back to 60%, while continued silence into mid-July would likely lead to another downgrade.
