Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, has revised his estimate for the CLARITY Act’s chances of passing in 2026 from 75% to 60%. The adjustment reflects growing concerns over the Senate’s busy schedule and unresolved policy issues.
Senate Calendar Becomes a Major Roadblock
Thorn said the biggest challenge facing the crypto market structure bill is no longer political support but time. Next week’s Senate agenda is expected to focus on FISA-related matters after a failed reauthorization vote. The Senate has already spent significant time on other legislative priorities, leaving less room for crypto bills.
He also pointed out that key issues around lawmaker ethics rules and illicit finance provisions remain unresolved. The lack of progress on these topics has further complicated the path forward, he noted.
Despite lowering his odds, Thorn said he remains optimistic about the legislation’s eventual prospects. But he warned that timing has become increasingly important. Expectations could shift quickly depending on how the Senate calendar evolves, perhaps faster than many anticipate.
Why the CLARITY Act Matters
The CLARITY Act is seen as one of the most important crypto market structure bills under consideration in Washington. Its main goal is to establish clear jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Under the proposal, digital assets classified as commodities would fall under CFTC oversight, while securities would remain under SEC regulation. This distinction would affect how tokens are issued, how exchanges operate, and what compliance requirements projects must meet.
Supporters argue that clear federal rules would reduce regulatory uncertainty, encourage innovation in the U.S., and prevent crypto firms from moving operations overseas.
Thorn’s revised outlook comes as some lawmakers remain hopeful. Earlier this year, Cynthia Lummis identified July 4 as a target date to advance market-structure legislation through the Senate.
However, Thorn’s latest assessment reflects growing worries that legislative priorities outside crypto could delay that timeline. He emphasized that his estimate reflects scheduling challenges rather than a lack of support for the bill itself.
For crypto investors and industry participants, the downgrade serves as a reminder that while momentum for regulatory clarity remains strong, the path to final approval may take longer than many hoped. The next few weeks could be critical in determining whether the CLARITY Act gains traction or slips further down the priority list.
