Gibraltar has introduced what it calls the world’s first dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, a move that sets it apart from the rest of Europe. The Prediction Market Regulations 2026, released by the Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry, came into force today. They exempt prediction-market operators from certain parts of the territory’s Gambling Act 2025 and instead apply a set of tailored rules.
Nigel Feetham KC MP, Gibraltar’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, described the framework as “a bespoke regulatory regime for prediction markets, the first dedicated framework of its kind anywhere in the world.” The 24-page document takes what the government calls an “activity-based and risk-based approach.” Under the new rules, every event contract must be approved and certified by the Gambling Authority. Each contract must be “clear, capable of objective settlement, not readily susceptible to manipulation, and consistent with the regulatory objectives.”
Oversight and Market Integrity
An independent supervisory panel will oversee the framework. Operators are required to maintain their own systems to prevent market abuse. “The focus is not on labels,” Feetham said, “but on ensuring that the chosen framework is capable of effective supervision and robust standards of market integrity, transparency, participant protection and financial crime prevention.”
The first operator already licensed under Gibraltar’s previous gambling law was ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction-market partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026. It is built on the ADI Chain blockchain run by Abu Dhabi’s ADI Foundation. It was licensed as a betting intermediary on March 26 under the territory’s 2005 gambling act. The second product to fall under the new regime is called Wire Markets, the platform of California-based WagerWire. It was approved in principle in June and is targeting a launch around the start of the international club football season in August. WagerWire co-founder Travis Geiger called the framework “a landmark moment for the prediction market industry,” saying it “gives operators the clarity they need to build for the long term.”
A Growing Gap with Europe
Gibraltar’s first prediction-market license in March was a distinct milestone from today’s framework. The former authorized a single operator under existing law, while the latter creates a dedicated regime for the sector. This new development further widens the gap with the rest of Europe. Earlier this month, the EU’s markets watchdog, ESMA, reminded firms that event contracts meeting the definition of financial instruments are already barred from retail sale under existing binary-options rules. In June, nine national regulators issued a joint statement warning operators over consumer-protection risks, and the Netherlands had already ordered Polymarket to cease serving its market.
Gibraltar already derives roughly a quarter of its GDP from gambling-associated services. With the United Kingdom – its core market – raising its Remote Gaming Duty to 40%, diversifying into a new, fast-growing vertical is a way to offset that pressure on the operators hosted by the territory. Regulated prediction-market trading volume continues to climb steeply, with combined monthly volume across the leading platforms reaching $44.8 billion in June. Whether Gibraltar’s first-mover framework becomes a template or an exception remains to be seen.
