Metaplanet’s Stock Takes a Hit—Even as Bitcoin Holds Strong
Metaplanet’s stock has had a rough month. The price has tumbled nearly 40% from its peak earlier this year, sliding into what traders call a bear market. That’s a sharp drop, especially when you consider Bitcoin—Metaplanet’s biggest asset—is still hovering near record highs.
At the moment, shares are sitting at ¥1,180, down from ¥1,934 in June. It’s the lowest point since early summer, which seems odd given the company’s Bitcoin stash is worth more than ever.
Why the Drop? Maybe It’s Just Too Expensive
Metaplanet holds 16,352 Bitcoin, currently valued at around $1.9 billion. The company bought most of it at an average price of $99,502 per coin, meaning their holdings have jumped roughly 20% in value. So why isn’t the stock following suit?
One theory is that investors think Metaplanet’s stock is overpriced. Its net asset value (NAV) multiple sits at 2.79—higher than most competitors. For comparison, Strategy, another big Bitcoin holder, has a NAV multiple of 1.6. Even Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms are below 2. That gap might be spooking some buyers.
Then there’s the dilution issue. Like Strategy, Metaplanet has been issuing new shares to fund Bitcoin purchases. It’s a smart move in the long run, but it means existing shares get watered down. The number of outstanding shares has ballooned from 57 million in 2022 to 459 million today. That’s a lot of extra stock floating around.
Following the Crowd—Or Cashing Out?
Metaplanet isn’t the only Bitcoin-heavy stock struggling. MSTR, for example, is still 25% below its all-time high, even as Bitcoin flirts with its own records. Maybe it’s just the nature of these stocks—they don’t always move in lockstep with Bitcoin itself.
Or maybe it’s simpler than that. After a 12,900% rally from its 2024 low, Metaplanet was bound to see some profit-taking. Big runs often lead to pullbacks, and this might just be one of them.
Could a Rebound Be Coming?
Looking at the charts, there are a few signs that the worst might be over. The stock has hit the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, a common bounce point for traders. It’s also still well above its 50-week and 100-week moving averages—a good sign for long-term holders.
And then there’s the hammer candlestick pattern—a small body with a long lower shadow. Some traders see that as a signal the selling pressure is easing.
Of course, none of this is guaranteed. If Bitcoin takes another leg up, Metaplanet’s stock might follow. But if Bitcoin stumbles, well… things could get worse before they get better. For now, investors seem to be playing it cautious.
