Donald Trump Jr. could see a significant financial gain from his stake in the prediction market company Kalshi, but the deal is already drawing criticism over potential conflicts of interest.
He received roughly $300,000 in Kalshi equity after signing on as a strategic adviser on January 13, 2025. Just two months after his father returned to the White House, Trump Jr. publicly praised how well Kalshi predicted the 2024 election.
In a post on X, he wrote that “while biased outlets called the race a coin toss, my family and close friends used prediction market @Kalshi to know we had won hours ahead of the fake news media.” He added, “I immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission.”
The company gave shares to the president’s oldest son when Kalshi was worth less than $2 billion. He put none of his own money into the firm.
Kalshi Prepares for Public Listing
By mid-2026, the fast-growing company is preparing for a possible public listing and has brought on former Trump administration officials to fill its leadership. Kalshi is also in talks to raise money at a valuation of about $40 billion as early as the third quarter of this year. That’s less than a year after hitting a $22 billion valuation in an earlier round.
Over the past 18 months, the company has issued additional shares, which have reduced Trump Jr.’s holding. But the increase in value still gives him a sizable financial gain.
The arrangement has sparked concerns due to the president’s administration’s laissez-faire approach to regulation and the president’s family’s business and consulting connections.
Similar to stock exchanges, prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts based on their predictions about the future. These platforms, which formerly focused on economic data, also offer political betting.
Critics Warn of Corruption Risks
A study estimates that over $200 million has been bet on political and governmental events, including congressional votes, Supreme Court rulings, and government appointments. Betting pools associated with the First Family, according to critics, encourage corruption.
If officials knew in advance of a congressional vote or a troop movement, their compensation could triple. The reward for disclosing secrets increases. Insiders close to the Oval Office could place large, concealed bets right before the president announces a major action.
The markets also benefit from Trump’s unpredictable nature. “Trump is the guy. He makes the market possible,” said Kwok Ping Tsang, a Virginia Tech economist who studies the field. “He’s so unpredictable.”
Trump Jr.’s reach extends further. His venture business, 1789 Capital, made an estimated double-digit million-dollar investment in Polymarket, Kalshi’s primary competitor, in August 2025. He also joined its advisory board. This gives him roles and money on the two largest such platforms in the country. Polymarket has approximately $90 million in political wagers, while Kalshi has more than $129 million.
The family’s reach expanded once more when Trump Media & Technology Group launched “Truth Predict,” its own platform built with Crypto.com.
Federal Support and Legal Uncertainty
The growth comes alongside strong federal support. Before the election, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had tried to stop Kalshi’s contracts on congressional races. Kalshi won the case just before election day, and the CFTC dropped its appeal in May 2025.
Two months later, the CFTC and the Justice Department ended a probe into whether Polymarket had taken illegal bets from Americans. The main legal dispute is whether these contracts are legitimate financial goods or illicit gambling. A number of states plan to shut down the websites after classifying them as gambling.
Michael Selig, the chairman of the CFTC and a proponent of federal regulations over state restrictions, was chosen by Trump. President Trump defended the platforms and called many of their detractors “scum” on social media last month.
Rival exchange CME Group has sued the CFTC over Kalshi’s license, citing the Trump family’s ties. Kalshi’s IPO plans do not include any crypto tokens, implying that the company prefers to appear traditional. The complete details will be revealed in subsequent SEC filings.
