Well, it’s been a rough week for XRP. Just a few days back, things were looking up. The token had finally broken its old record, hitting a high it hadn’t seen in years. People were feeling good. Optimistic, even. Now? Not so much.
Sentiment Shifts on Prediction Markets
Over on Myriad, the prediction market run by Decrypt’s parent company, the mood has shifted pretty dramatically. Last week, users gave XRP about a 66% chance of climbing to $4. Now, those odds have basically collapsed. It’s sitting at around 51% for the “moon” scenario and 49% for the “doom” outcome of $2. It was even worse yesterday. For a minute, the bears were fully in control. It’s a sharp turnaround, and it makes you wonder what changed.
Breaking Down the Price Action
A look at the charts tells part of the story. XRP opened today around $2.95, made a run for the big psychological number of $3, and then just… fell back. It dipped below $2.87 before settling around $2.90. That’s a drop of nearly 2%, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but it matters. It’s more about what it represents.
The price has now slipped below its 50-day exponential moving average. That’s a line traders watch. It doesn’t automatically mean a sell-off is coming, but it’s not a great sign. If that level starts acting as a ceiling instead of a floor, pushing past $3 gets a lot harder. Reaching $4 starts to look like a real long shot.
What the Indicators Are Saying
Other metrics aren’t looking great either. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 43. Since anything below 50 generally means the sellers are in charge, a reading that low suggests bearish momentum is building. It’s not a guarantee of further decline, but it’s a warning.
Then there’s the Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures how strong a trend is. It’s fallen below 25, which basically means there isn’t a clear trend right now. The market’s just choppy. Directionless. That kind of uncertainty often makes it hard for prices to move up in any sustained way.
Two Very Different Paths
So where does it go from here? The optimistic view needs a sudden, strong reversal back above $3 with a lot of trading volume behind it. Without that, the path to $4 seems blocked.
The pessimistic view is gaining ground, though. With key support levels breaking and momentum indicators pointing down, a test of $2.50 seems possible. If that doesn’t hold, well, the slide toward $2 could become a reality.
The wild swing in prediction market odds tells you all you need to know about the current mood. The confidence from last week has evaporated, replaced by a nervous coin flip. After such a sharp run-up, this kind of correction isn’t totally surprising. But it’s a reminder that what goes up can certainly stall out, at least for a while.
