XRP Sees Largest Realized Loss Spike Since Late 2022
On-chain data reveals something interesting happening with XRP this week. According to Santiment, the cryptocurrency has posted $1.93 billion in realized losses. That’s the biggest spike we’ve seen since late 2022, which is about 39 months ago.
Realized losses happen when investors sell their coins below what they originally paid. Basically, they’re locking in losses instead of waiting for prices to recover. When this number jumps sharply, it often signals market fear or frustration. But here’s the thing—it’s not always bad news.
Historical Patterns and Market Psychology
The timing of this spike is what has traders watching closely. Back in 2022, a similar surge in realized losses preceded an 114% price increase for XRP over the next eight months. That historical pattern has people wondering if we might see something similar now.
Analysts sometimes call this “capitulation”—when less confident investors sell during price declines. It sounds negative, but it can actually reduce selling pressure. Once most of the likely sellers have exited, there are fewer people left to push prices down further.
I think it’s worth noting that severe spikes in realized losses have often appeared around market bottoms for various cryptocurrencies. That doesn’t guarantee a rebound, of course, but it helps explain why this data is getting so much attention.
Mixed Analyst Views on XRP’s Future
The analyst community seems divided on what comes next. CryptoBull has put out some aggressive short-term targets: $13 by March, $27 by April, and $70 by May. Those numbers seem pretty optimistic to me, but they’re based on three-month price momentum patterns.
Egrag Crypto takes a longer view, looking at past market cycles. They point out that XRP’s cycle bottom was $0.10 in 2020 and $0.28 in 2022—a 2.8-times increase between lows. That suggests each downturn might be setting the stage for higher lows in the next cycle.
Not everyone is so bullish, though. Several institutions have adjusted their targets as market conditions shift. Whale movements and exchange flows continue to influence short-term pricing, which makes long-term predictions tricky.
Current Market Position and Real-World Developments
Despite the heavy realized losses, XRP has shown some resilience recently. At publication time, it was trading at $1.44, up 1.55% in the last 24 hours. That said, it’s still down 25.12% over the past month.
The broader crypto market rebound, led by Bitcoin, has helped. But there are also some interesting institutional developments that could support sentiment.
Japan’s SBI Holdings recently launched a ¥10 billion on-chain bond issuance worth about $64.5 million. What’s particularly interesting is that bond investors are rewarded in XRP. That’s a real-world use case that shows how the token might function beyond pure speculation.
In Europe, banking giant Société Générale introduced its euro-backed stablecoin, EUR CoinVertible, on the XRP Ledger as part of a multi-chain strategy. And XRP spot ETFs have posted three consecutive weeks of net inflows, though the pace of new investments has slowed from previous weeks.
These developments suggest that while short-term sentiment might be negative due to the realized losses, there are underlying factors that could support XRP’s longer-term prospects. The market seems to be weighing fear against potential utility, and it’s not clear yet which will win out.
