The S&P 500 is still close to its record high, but the market underneath is not. A recent Kobeissi Letter analysis says more than 60% of the index’s companies are now at least 20% below their own peaks. That puts most of the benchmark in bear-market territory even while the headline number looks calm.
This is not a small shift. It shows how much the index depends on a handful of mega-cap names. Earlier in the year, only ten firms drove roughly 70% of the S&P 500’s advance from its March 30 low. That narrow support helped hide weakness in the rest of the market. Now the damage is spreading, and some of the biggest names are no longer immune.
Big Tech Losses Deepen
The Kobeissi data shows four of the Magnificent Seven have dropped 15% or more from their peaks. The group has erased about $4 trillion in market value from its highs. Alphabet is down 31% from its all-time high, falling from $400 to $282. Meta has lost more than 21% since its mid-August peak and closed last week around $625. Those are not small pullbacks for companies of that size.
The list of tech-related declines is long. AppLovin is down 68% from its high. CoreWeave is down 60%. Western Digital has fallen 54%, and Oracle is down 51%. Arm Holdings has dropped 55% in the Kobeissi list, while Intel, Broadcom, Adobe, Micron, IBM, Amazon, and Meta also show double-digit losses from their peaks. The numbers vary by source and timing, but the direction is clear.
Crypto-Linked Stocks Take a Hit
Crypto-linked equities are among the worst performers. Coinbase is down 62% from its peak, according to the analysis. Circle has fallen 48%, and Robinhood is down 44%. Robinhood is not a pure crypto play, but it has leaned further into digital assets over the past year. The losses suggest that the same risk appetite that lifted these names is now pulling back.
The Nasdaq 100 has also lost nearly $5 trillion since October 6, the Kobeissi Letter said. That figure is large enough to reshape how investors think about the current cycle. It is hard to call this a normal bull market when so many stocks are already in deep drawdowns. The index may be near a record, but the average company is not.
A Divergence, Not a Final Call
Still, Kobeissi does not treat the split as proof of a long collapse. The firm views the divergence as a possible opportunity. That may be true, but the market is getting harder to read. Concentration is weakening, losses are spreading, and the gap between the headline index and the rest of the market is now too large to ignore.
