The Treasury’s $25 billion sale of 30-year bonds on Nov. 12 at 1 p.m. Eastern is the next checkpoint for bond investors, and perhaps for Bitcoin. The auction follows a weaker-than-expected 10-year note sale on Nov. 10, when demand fell on two measures even as the yield came in lower.
What the 10-year auction showed
The Nov. 10 sale of $42 billion in 10-year notes cleared at a high yield of 5.02%, down from 5.3% at October’s reopening. That lower yield did not bring stronger bidding. Bid-to-cover fell to 2.46 from 2.77. Indirect bidders took about 61.2% of competitive awards, down from 80.3% in October.
The comparison is not perfect. October’s $39 billion sale reopened the August note. November offered a new security. August is the closer match on size and new-issue status: its $42 billion sale drew 2.53 bid coverage and about 76.7% indirect participation, and it cleared at 4.68%. November still looked weaker on both participation measures, though market conditions differ.
The sale was fully subscribed. That matters. Indirect bidding also does not prove foreign capital is leaving. Treasury’s bidder categories include domestic and foreign customers who place orders through intermediaries, so the data has limits.
Why Bitcoin may care
The link runs through financing conditions, not a single auction. If weaker demand pushes long-term yields higher and financing gets tighter, investors may have less room in risk budgets for crypto. If demand holds up and financing stays stable, that concern softens. The 2023 IMF working paper found U.S. monetary tightening reduced a broad crypto price factor through investor risk-taking. That study looked at monetary tightening, not one Treasury sale.
The cash math also deserves caution. The 30-year auction settles Nov. 16 with the other November refunding securities. Treasury’s $125 billion refunding replaces about $97 billion of privately held maturities and raises roughly $28 billion in new private cash. The $25 billion bond sale is gross issuance, not entirely new borrowing.
The test ahead
The question for the Nov. 12 sale is simple: will buyers show up for the 30-year sale, and will yields rise if demand disappoints? For Bitcoin, the signal is not the headline size alone. It is whether the auction adds to evidence of tighter financing, or eases the pressure. That leaves crypto investors watching a bond sale at 1 p.m. Eastern and waiting to see how the long end of the Treasury market clears.
