HYPE price faces pressure after recent supply unlock
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is trading around $32, and honestly, the situation looks a bit fragile. The price action feels uncertain, caught between support levels and some concerning market dynamics. What’s interesting is that the recent unlock dumped about 9.9 million HYPE into circulation—that’s roughly 2.6% of the supply—and that’s creating some real pressure.
I think the market is trying to figure out whether the $33–$35 area will hold as support. If it doesn’t, we could see a move toward the high-$20s. The daily RSI is stuck in the high-40s, which suggests neither bulls nor bears have clear control right now. It’s one of those moments where the market feels undecided.
Market structure shows concerning signs
Looking at the bigger picture, the market structure isn’t exactly encouraging for a clean upside break. Trading activity is actually shrinking instead of expanding, which isn’t what you’d want to see if you were hoping for a rally. The chart has been grinding inside the same channel for months, and that pattern hasn’t changed.
What’s perhaps more telling is the derivatives data. Spot and futures volumes are down by about a third from recent highs, and open interest has eased a few points. This combination often leads to sudden price movements once things start moving—like air pockets in trading.
Assistance Fund activity versus supply pressure
Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund has been active, spending over 600 million dollars on buybacks this year. They typically absorb a few million dollars of tokens daily. But here’s the thing: that steady demand looks pretty small next to a one-off release of 9.9 million tokens. If any of that unlocked supply hits the market, the order book could get twitchy.
There’s a whale trader worth mentioning—0xBd8c is long $30 million of HYPE on Hyperliquid with $10 million as margin. He’s already up $2.5 million, with a liquidation price at $22.5. Whether he cashes out or lets it run could influence short-term price action.
Social sentiment reflects market uncertainty
Social media shows a clear split in opinions. Some argue HYPE is just lagging the broader market, while others see the recent underperformance as part of a shift toward lower risk in major tokens. There’s also a group claiming the Assistance Fund is quietly buying while HYPE trades at stressed levels, suggesting current prices might represent a temporary disconnect rather than fair value.
The chart itself refuses to pick a side. HYPE is still moving lower inside a descending channel that has capped rallies since late summer. The $33–35 band acts as a pivot where both sides keep testing each other.
A decisive daily close below that zone would likely bring the $28–30 area into focus as a liquidity pocket. On the flip side, a clean reclaim and hold of the $36–37 “distribution” area would suggest sellers are running out of inventory and could open space toward $40 and above into year-end.
But here’s my take: the near term still tilts slightly to the downside. The fresh supply overhang and softer speculative participation make a retest of the high-$20s seem like the base case. There’s a lower-probability path where HYPE squeezes back through $37 if macro risk stabilizes and the Assistance Fund’s bid proves strong enough to absorb the remaining unlocked supply.
It’s one of those situations where you need to watch the $33–35 level closely. That seems to be the key battleground for now.
