Bitcoin’s February Outlook Shifts Dramatically
Polymarket traders have significantly revised their Bitcoin price expectations for February. The prediction market now shows a 74% probability that Bitcoin will close the month at or above $70,000. That’s a sharp increase from previous levels, suggesting traders are bracing for lower prices.
Just a few weeks ago, the outlook was much more optimistic. The $85,000 contract has dropped 61% to just 29% probability. Higher targets like $90,000 and $95,000 are now sitting at 12% and 7% respectively. It’s quite a shift in sentiment.
On the downside, there’s some protection being priced in too. The $65,000 contract sits at 39% probability, while $60,000 holds at 19%. The market seems to be drawing a line around $70,000 as the most likely outcome for February.
Longer-Term Optimism Fades Slightly
The annual contract for 2026 tells a more nuanced story. There’s still majority belief in Bitcoin reaching $100,000 sometime next year, but that probability has dropped 29% to 55%. The $110,000 target sits at 42%, also down significantly.
What’s interesting is the defensive positioning. The $65,000 contract for 2026 has surged 24% to 83% probability with over $1 million in volume. That’s the highest volume on the board, which suggests traders are more focused on downside protection than upside speculation right now.
Higher targets like $130,000 and $140,000 have probabilities around 20% and 15%. The $250,000 target is near 5%. So while there’s still some long-term optimism, it’s definitely tempered compared to recent months.
Market Conditions Driving the Shift
Bitcoin was trading around $73,199 when this analysis was written, after briefly dipping below $72,000 earlier. That’s down about 16% year-to-date and roughly 40% from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
Several factors seem to be converging. Geopolitical tensions are rising, there are lingering data gaps from last fall’s government shutdown, and the Federal Reserve chair nomination appears hawkish. All of this has strengthened the dollar and put pressure on risk assets.
The technical damage has been pretty severe. Over $5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred since late January, pushing open interest to a nine-month low. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent outflows for most of the past three weeks.
There was a single inflow day of $561 million on February 2, but that was surrounded by significant outflows. Total net assets across spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen from over $128 billion in mid-January to about $97 billion.
Fear Dominates Current Sentiment
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 12, which puts it deep in “Extreme Fear” territory. That’s the lowest reading since November 2025. Meanwhile, gold has surged past $5,000 per ounce, highlighting a broader rotation into safe haven assets.
Polymarket’s data gives us a real-time look at how traders with actual money on the line are positioned. For February, expectations center on a range of $65,000 to $85,000, with almost no chance of reclaiming $95,000.
The annual contract is more forgiving, with a slim majority still expecting $100,000 sometime in 2026. But even that conviction is weakening. For now, $70,000 seems to be the number everyone is watching most closely.
It’s worth remembering that prediction markets aren’t perfect forecasts, but they do reflect where informed traders are putting their money. The shift from $85,000 to $70,000 as the most probable February outcome tells us something about how sentiment has changed recently.
