A new Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests most Americans do not want prediction markets used for betting on US elections or government actions. The survey found broad opposition across party lines, even as the industry keeps growing and fighting regulators in court.
Where the numbers stand
The poll surveyed 4,506 adults nationwide from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5. Among Democrats, 69% said they opposed using prediction markets to bet on election results. Among Republicans, 61% said the same. That is not a small gap, but it does show that resistance is not limited to one side.
Sports betting drew a more mixed response. About 43% of respondents opposed betting on professional sports, while 29% supported it. The rest were likely unsure or did not answer, though the poll summary did not break that down in detail. I think that split matters because prediction markets often talk about sports as a safer, more familiar use case than elections.
The fight over who regulates
Prediction market companies like Polymarket and Kalshi let users bet on elections, policy moves, and sports. That business has led to lawsuits involving state and federal agencies. The main question is who has the authority to regulate these markets.
The Trump administration is pursuing federal rules through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. States are pushing back. Many people following the case expect the dispute to reach the Supreme Court. On Oct. 8, Cointelegraph reported that 39 US states and the District of Columbia filed an amicus brief. The states said the conflict between the CFTC and state authorities had become a national turf war that needs a Supreme Court answer.
What it means for the market
The poll does not settle the legal fight. It does add political weight to the argument that election betting is a sensitive area. Prediction markets may still find room in policy and sports, but election contracts are likely to stay under scrutiny. Perhaps the strongest signal is that opposition crosses party lines. For an industry trying to win public trust, that is hard to ignore.
