Why the November Average Is Misleading
XRP closed October down 15.7%, and that puts the token at one of its more uncertain points this year. The headline number often cited for November looks great: an average gain of 80.2%, based on 13 years of data from Cryptorank. But that figure is not a clean signal. It is pulled upward by two extreme moves, a 531.9% surge in 2013 and a 281.7% rally in 2024. Remove those outliers and the picture changes.
The median return for November is negative 10%. That matters more than the average here. In most cycles, XRP ended the month in the red. The fourth quarter, with only October complete, is already down 16.3%. So the seasonal story is not as bullish as the average suggests. Thirteen observations is also a small sample, and the market has changed since many of those years. I think investors should treat the 80% figure with caution.
Price Pressure Meets a Routine Unlock
Market structure adds another layer. XRP has slipped below the $1.30 support line and is trading near $1.25 to $1.26, which points to a local downtrend. The upward momentum from earlier expectations has faded, opening room for short-term profit-taking. Part of the pressure may come from the 48% gain in the third quarter, XRP’s best Q3 in four years. That looks more like profit-taking after a rally than pure seasonality.
Supply is another factor. A scheduled unlock of 1 billion XRP from Ripple’s escrow wallets is due on Sunday, November 1. It is a routine monthly event that has followed the same schedule since 2017, and Ripple usually returns 600 million to 800 million XRP to new escrow contracts. The net addition to circulating supply is therefore closer to 200 million to 400 million XRP. Still, with thin liquidity, that volume can add pressure. It arrives alongside macro stress and the aftermath of forced long liquidations worth more than $1.29 billion after a security incident at Binance.
What Could Change the Bearish Setup
The liquidation wave has cleared some excess leverage. If funding rates stay negative and open interest does not recover, the bearish case may be capped by a short squeeze. In that setup, a retest of $1.30 to $1.32 becomes more likely than the raw November statistics imply. Since spot XRP ETFs launched in the US in mid-November 2025, the token also has an institutional demand channel that did not exist in earlier cycles. That does not erase the negative median or the current downtrend, but it does mean old seasonal averages deserve less weight. The next move likely depends on whether sellers keep control after the unlock or whether leverage gets squeezed first.
