Bitcoin has recovered after the recent $5 billion short squeeze, but the next leg higher may depend on forces outside the crypto market. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, told John Gillen that U.S. policy, the Federal Reserve and institutional demand will decide where BTC goes from here. He stays positioned long, though he sees $70,000 as the level to protect.
What Levels Matter Right Now
Edwards says Bitcoin has already cleared $65,000 and $70,000. Keeping above $70,000 should keep the bullish setup intact, while $71,000 is the next level to watch for confirmation. Below that, stronger support sits near $60,000. A drop under $70,000 would weaken the current picture. On the demand side, institutions are reportedly buying roughly 160% of the daily Bitcoin produced by miners, mostly through spot ETFs. That kind of buying has been a quiet source of support.
The Fed Still Calls the Shots
The Federal Reserve remains one of the biggest risk factors. Market pricing currently suggests at least one more rate hike this year, according to Edwards. He expects that view to shift depending on inflation, oil prices and the Iran conflict. If financial conditions stay supportive, crypto can keep climbing. More Fed tightening, on the other hand, makes the road to $100,000 harder.
No New High Without a Catalyst
Edwards sees Bitcoin moving toward the $90,000 range and possibly near $100,000, but he does not expect a clean all-time high until something changes. The catalyst might come from the U.S. government officially buying Bitcoin, a major move involving the Treasury General Account, or a clear two-year plan from Bitcoin developers around quantum computing risks. He thinks even visible progress on quantum protection could lift prices, since it would remove a long-term concern hanging over the market.
Altcoins in a Different Cycle
In the altcoin market, Edwards is watching Hyperliquid’s $HYPE. He points to its tokenomics, strong revenue growth and daily token buybacks. The protocol has also built a product that lets users trade U.S. equities without traditional KYC requirements, which sets it apart. He also mentions Ethereum, Ethena and Zcash as projects that fit the broader setup, with several altcoins bouncing off major support levels. Still, he is not treating this like 2017 or 2020. AI-driven hacks, quantum risks and DeFi vulnerabilities remain real concerns. He prefers projects with better token economics and actual revenue rather than coins facing heavy unlock pressure.
