Well, it was quite a week for crypto, wasn’t it? The total value of everything out there shot back up, pushing past that $4 trillion mark again. It feels like a real shift, though I suppose we’ve been fooled before. The big question, of course, is what happens next.
All Eyes on the Federal Reserve
A lot seems to hinge on the Federal Reserve’s meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday. There’s a widespread expectation—backed by a Reuters poll of economists—that we’ll see an interest rate cut. That belief really got stronger after last month’s jobs report came in weaker than many hoped.
Historically, lower rates tend to be good news for riskier assets. It makes money cheaper to borrow, so investors often look for higher returns elsewhere. We saw that play out dramatically during the pandemic era. But here’s the thing: there’s a chance this potential cut is already factored into current prices. If the Fed’s decision doesn’t match the market’s exact hopes, we could see a quick reversal. It’s a delicate balance.
The Altcoin Momentum
Another interesting signal is the Altcoin Season Index. It’s been climbing lately, sitting above 80 now. That often means money is flowing into coins beyond Bitcoin—names like Mantle, Cronos, and OKB have been doing well.
This kind of momentum can feed on itself, attracting more attention and potentially leading to a strong week for these assets. But it’s not a guaranteed win. Sometimes, when this index gets too high, it actually signals a peak. People start taking profits, and prices can dip. We saw a smaller version of that back in July.
New ETFs and Token Unlocks
There are a couple of other events that could stir the pot. Rumor has it we might see the first Dogecoin and XRP ETFs launch as soon as Thursday. They’re coming from Rex-Osprey. I should note these aren’t your typical ETFs; they’re structured a bit differently and might carry higher fees. They’re happening while everyone is still waiting for the bigger, more mainstream crypto ETF approvals expected later this year.
And then there are the scheduled token unlocks. A significant amount of Arbitrum tokens, worth nearly $50 million, are set to be released on Monday. Other projects like ApeCoin and ZetaChain have smaller, but still notable, unlocks planned. This often increases the available supply of a coin, which can sometimes put downward pressure on its price if demand doesn’t keep up.
So it looks like traders have a lot to digest. Between the Fed, altcoin momentum, new funds, and token unlocks, this week could go in several directions. Perhaps we’ll see the rally continue, or maybe things will cool off for a bit. It’s hard to say for sure.
