For the first time in nearly 100 years, Americans can legally place bets on who will win elections. Betting websites now let people buy and sell contracts based on whether certain politicians will win or lose. Supporters say these markets do a better job than old-fashioned polls at predicting actual outcomes.
Zachary Peskowitz, a political science professor at Emory University, explained that these websites give clearer odds than regular surveys. "So, for example, you can interpret a prediction market more or less as saying there’s an 80% chance that a given candidate wins the election," he said. "This is an information source that the media and individual citizens will use. Prediction markets and their increased prominence are likely to affect American politics in a variety of ways."
How betting platforms influence campaigns
These betting platforms are already changing how political campaigns operate. Recently, many people placed bets on the race in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District. They were not only predicting the winner but also measuring how much influence Donald Trump still holds within the Republican Party. The runoff election gained nationwide attention because of Trump’s endorsement and because platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have become part of how Americans track politics. In Kentucky, some candidates are even monitoring the odds betting markets give them during primary elections.
According to Andra Gillespie, these betting services work well because people are more honest when they place money on what they believe will happen rather than simply stating who they hope would win. The betting markets seem to pick up on political circumstances that do not get much attention, such as when politicians stay in office because no one else is willing to take over.
The downsides and risks
However, there is a downside. People are concerned that as these sites gain popularity, they will influence voter behavior rather than just predict it. Peskowitz warned that seeing negative prospects for your candidate might make you give up.
Earlier this year, Kalshi prohibited lawmakers, campaign workers, and some government employees from betting on US elections because of concerns about potential conflicts of interest. Meanwhile, Polymarket has been accused of insider trading and suspicious betting related to President Trump’s legal troubles and political prospects. According to reports, the platform has processed more than 413 million bets, with over $100 million currently tied to political races and election results. These scandals have raised concerns that political betting markets might be rigged, especially if insiders use private information to profit from election events. "There is a possibility that there can be corruption or that this could be used for corrupt purposes," said Gillespie.
Limitations and legal questions
Gillespie pointed out that betting sites cannot replace regular polls because they do not explain why people vote the way they do. "As a social scientist, I’m not just interested in who are you gonna vote for, but I’m also interested in why you’re voting in a particular election," she said.
The rules for political betting are still being worked out. Georgia currently does not allow legal sports gambling, even though prediction markets operate in a murky area across the country. According to Peskowitz, disputes between states, betting corporations, and federal agencies like the CFTC will likely determine the future of political betting.
For now, observers believe the runoff in Georgia’s 14th District will show two things: whether Trump still holds significant political power, and how important betting markets will be in future elections. The next steps taken by voters, campaigns, and regulators will decide whether these sites help or harm democracy. "I think it’s too early for us to tell," Gillespie said. "Political junkies might be paying attention to it, but I’m not sure that most people are paying attention to this in their everyday lives."
