So, there’s been a lot of talk lately about an economic turnaround in Argentina. President Javier Milei’s aggressive spending cuts and deregulation push have been called a “miracle” by some. But not everyone’s buying it.
In fact, one prominent voice is pushing back hard against that narrative. And it’s causing a bit of a stir.
Ammous Predicts a Rough Road Ahead
Saifedean Ammous, the economist who wrote “The Bitcoin Standard,” isn’t mincing words. He took to social media recently to lay out a pretty grim case against Milei’s policies. His main argument? The country’s massive debt problem is far from solved.
He pointed to a recent bond rollover attempt. The government offered an absolutely wild interest rate—something like 69%—to get investors to buy in. But it only managed to roll over about 61% of the bonds. When you can’t attract money even with rates that high, Ammous suggests, it’s a sign of deep, deep trouble. It hints at a default. Or maybe an inflationary spiral that’s just getting started.
The Staggering Weight of International Debt
And then there’s the sheer amount Argentina owes. Ammous highlighted new loans from big international lenders like the IMF and the World Bank. The total? Pushing $42 billion. That’s a massive burden for any economy to shoulder.
He’s also skeptical of the official inflation numbers, which he thinks are being manipulated. Even by the government’s own figures, though, prices have skyrocketed over 150% since Milei took office. That’s… a lot. It’s hard to see a real recovery for everyday people when that’s happening.
The Core of the Disagreement
Perhaps the biggest criticism from Ammous is about the central bank itself. During his campaign, Milei talked a big game about shutting it down entirely to truly fix the money supply. But he hasn’t done that.
To a bitcoin advocate like Ammous, this is the whole ballgame. All the talk of free markets, he argues, doesn’t mean much if the government still has complete control over the money. Since money is part of every single transaction, that control undermines everything else. It’s not really a free market if the most important tool is centrally planned.
It’s a stark warning. And while Milei’s cuts might look good on a spreadsheet to some, Ammous and others like him are sounding the alarm that the foundation might be crumbling. They see a debt default as a real possibility, not a miracle. Only time will tell who’s right.
